FMLN dominates first round in El Salvador

When all was said and done yesterday, the FMLN came up just over one percentage point short of a first round victory. The FMLN's Sanchez Ceren captured 48.9 percent of the vote while his primary challenger, ARENA's Norman Quijano, took in 38.95%. Tony Saca finished a distant third with 11.4%.

The US right wing has been very outspoken against Tony Saca. They believed that he was staying in the race to divide the conservative vote and to help the FMLN win. It looks, however, that Tony Saca's continued presence in the race actually forced Sanchez Ceren and Quijano to a second round. While it's difficult to know what would have happened had Saca not run at all, it's hard to imagine that the FMLN would not have been able to pick up enough of his votes to walk away the winner last night.

Boz and El Faro have very good takes on yesterday's election in El Salvador.

I would add that many of us hoped that President Mauricio Funes' 2009 election and five-year term would help mend differences between the ARENA and the FMLN. His moderate left government would reduce the polarization in one of the region's most polarized countries. I'd say that he has failed in that sense (well it might have been my goal not his anyway) especially during the last few weeks with his very personal attacks against former President Francisco Flores and his campaigning on the day before and the day of the vote. The President could have stayed above the fray and been a voice for the people.

The FMLN might be heading down the road to disappointment as well depending on how they negotiate for former ARENA president and Unidad candidate Tony Saca's political support. Everyone seems to believe that he is as dirty as they come but that does not appear to be stopping the FMLN from working out a second round alliance.

I'm pretty sure that the FMLN could defeat ARENA in a second round without Saca but I am not sure that they will want to take that chance. An alliance would probably help much more in the legislative assembly where the FMLN will need GANA to pass legislation. The FMLN will have to be thinking about winning a second round, passing legislation in the assembly, and competing in the 2015 legislative and municipal elections. Does an alliance with Saca demoralize its base? The FMLN seems to have believed that a demoralization of its base was the cause of its poor 2012 performance (remember that vote where ARENA was ready to take on the world?).

Finally, for now, the electoral campaign and the vote demonstrate the strength of many of the country's political institutions, the TSE in particular. While no means perfect, the country's democratic institutions seem to be much stronger than those of its neighbors in Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We like to lump the Northern Triangle together but it doesn't always make the best sense.

Yeah second rounds - we get to do this all over again in March and April

Sorry for the late arrival. After putting the kids to bed, I stayed offline in order to watch the Super Bowl on DVR. Not that exciting. I'm also finishing up three syllabus. Spring session starts tomorrow.

In the meantime, we look headed for a second round in El Salvador.

Kind of reminds me of 1994 when ARENA finished the first round with 49 percent of the vote and the FMLN with 25 percent. ARENA won handily in that second round in the country's first postwar election. The FMLN should feel good tonight even if they don't win a first round victory. However, they might be kicking themselves because they probably would have walk away with a first round victory had Oscar Ortiz headed the ticket.

We are also looking at a second round in Costa Rica. As of 9:33 PM, Johnny Araya leads with 30.6 percent. The surprise is that he is ahead of Luis Guillermo Solis who has 29.4 percent. Solis had been moving up in the polls as Villalta weakened. He has 17.4 percent.

The 2014 Lozano Long Conference — Archiving the Central American Revolutions

The 2014 Lozano Long Conference — Archiving the Central American Revolutions - will be held February 19-21 at The University of Texas at Austin.

The 2014 Lozano Long Conference will feature new critical interpretations of the “revolutionary decades” in Central America (1970 through 1990), drawing together scholars from the United States and Central America with research expertise on this crucial period of contemporary history. The scholarly rationale for the conference is especially strong, given that a whole generation of scholars of Central America, who came of age during the revolutionary era, are now senior members of the profession. Their unique perspective, in dialogue with a rising generation of young scholars who did not live through this period and bring a different set of perspectives and viewpoints to the conversation, will be featured.

The second conference objective is to initiate a project of acquisition of documentary materials—personal papers, political broadsides, photos, clippings, music—related to the Central American crisis. We hope to emphasize to potential contributors the salience of these collections as historical artifacts so these materials are not lost forever. These ephemeral materials will complement the more formal post custodial archival activities that LLILAS Benson is engaged in with our partners in the region. We foresee that, through an active process of acquisition and conservation, LLILAS Benson has the potential to become the world’s foremost repository for 1980s Central America-related materials.

Here is a link to the panels and participants. It looks like an excellent conference.