Peace accords on the verge of collapse?

Government and rebel representatives signed a United Nations supported peace accord ending over a decade of civil war in 1992. The conflict was fueled primarily by local injustices but it also had all the flavors of a Cold War conflict with the US, Soviets and others providing political, economic, and military support to the war's participants.

Unfortunately, after well over a decade of relative peace and economic growth, the rebels and the government have engaged in a series of back and forth moves that threaten one of the most successful examples of negotiated settlements to civil wars of the twentieth century.

Here's the story:

Mozambique has been a country on the rise in recent years. In 1992, it concluded 17 years of civil war with the Rome General Peace Accords. And after a period of dependence on international aid, its economy has begun to come into its own, as the country has attracted energy companies from around the world to develop untapped oil and coal resources. The Mozambican economy was projected to grow 7 percent this year, but progress may be derailed if the country lapses back into violence.

That seems more likely today than at any other point since the Rome Accords were signed 15 years ago. On Monday, Mozambican government forces raided the headquarters of the opposition movement, Renamo, forcing the organization's leader, Afonso Dhlakama, to flee. The organization then announced its withdrawal from the 1992 accords, and on Tuesday staged an attack on a police station in the town of Maringue (no casualties were reported). It's not the first time Renamo has clashed with the government, which since 1992 has been headed by its civil war rival, the Frelimo party -- Renamo skirmished with government forces earlier this year in April and June. But the withdrawal from the Rome Accords is a significant move, marking the end of one of Africa's most successful peace treaties and the culmination of a five-year drift towards violence.

The accord's success can largely be attributed to the country's aid dependency and a working relationship between the leaders of Frelimo and Renamo, Carrie Manning, a professor at Georgia State University who has written extensively on Mozambican politics, explained to FP by email. Initially, she writes, "both Renamo and Frelimo needed the ongoing support of international donors, who had a large part in overseeing the peace process and worked effectively to provide good offices and financial contributions to help overcome stumbling blocks in the process." In the event of tension, Renamo could turn to stakeholders abroad. "it was a kind of second court of public opinion to which Renamo especially could appeal," says Manning.

And Barbara Walter has a nice short post on The Four Things We Know About How Civil Wars End (and What This Tells Us About Syria).