Antigua tries to fight off "Guatemala problems"

The AP has a new post on Guatemala's longtime tourist mecca of Antigua suffers rising crime, political dysfunction. Antigua is one of the most charming cities in the Americas and one of the most important to Guatemalan tourism. Unfortunately, there have been problems for at least the last year, including rising crime and the dereliction of public services.

Tourists are being mugged, bus companies extorted, and businesses and homes burglarized at a greater rate. The city is having a difficult time collecting trash, keeping the water running, and buses operating.

Many blame political turmoil for the troubles in this city of about 53,000 people. Antigua hasn't had an elected mayor since September 2012 when Adolfo Vivar and several relatives and members of his administration were charged with establishing a criminal network that stole nearly $3 million from the city's treasury. Although an interim mayor was named, electoral authorities haven't yet said how Vivar and the council members will be permanently replaced.

That's left Antigua unable to attend to basic business and spooked some longtime townspeople, who say they're afraid their charming niche amid the volcanoes could see vital tourism revenue plummet.

I lived in Antigua for the first half of 2013. I was there with my family and I can say that we did not have any problems. I can't say that we were that worried about crime either but that's obviously because we lived in two different gated communities. Given that my wife and I were there with a 4 and 6 year, we also did not go out too much at night.

However, we did hear several stories of people being robbed. Most tended to be of the pickpocket variety. We would also read of a number of robberies of businesses, especially computer/electronic stores. I was also told about a few violent attacks against foreign women, one a home invasion and another a kidnapping from in front of a well-known hotel, in recent years. I didn't get specific dates but they occurred prior to our arrival last December.

Even with the apparent increase in crime, Antigua still was a pleasant, safe place to live. And, honestly, I heard similar stories when I passed through in 1998, including armed robberies and sexual attacks against women. I have no doubt that things are worse today but don't walk away with the impression that these things didn't used to happen.

There were also a number of people who did not believe that the charges against the mayor were true or, even if they were, he still got things done. They all benefited from his corruption.

For me, the biggest changes in Antigua were the number of people and cars, the cost of living, and the "first world" amenities. I first visited Antigua in 1998 as a backpacker. It was a really charming city where you could roam the streets. When I returned this year with my family, you could not roam the streets. It felt like there were more cars, buses, tuk-tuks, and motorcycles than there were people. Crossing or walking the streets was much more dangerous. This is a problem as most of the sidewalks are narrow and homes have planters or flower boxes in their windows that seem to take up half of the sidewalk. You can also appreciate the beauty of the homes on both sides of the street by walking on the cobblestone. And the cobblestones do not seem to be holding up that well to all the traffic.

The cost of living seems to have increased quite significantly. Part of that is being a foreigner as people are always trying to scam you. The influx of wealthy foreigners, including a number of retirees, has pushed up housing prices forcing locals out of the city's central area. Another contribution is simply the cost of goods nationwide, for example the price of tortillas. Now some of this is just me. I was on a much tighter budget fifteen years ago and was not traveling with children so some of the price inflation was self-inflicted.

Finally, the "first world" amenities. It's great that you can go to Antigua and get a happy meal, crepes, bagels, bratwurst, and fusion food that you've never dreamed of. However, many of the locals (and foreigners) complained that few of the businesses were owned by Guatemalans or served Guatemalan food. It wasn't that these new businesses were adding to what was available in Antigua. They were replacing what had been available.

Antigua is still a lovely place and one that I would be happy to return to and, perhaps, even live long-term. My wife probably wouldn't go back without a car. Tuk-tuks are cute the first few times but then they become more of a nightmare. It is just that, like many things, it used to be better.

That's more of a problem for those who've been there before or who live there today. First-timers will still love it.

US calls for patience following Honduras vote

Most of the action surrounding the Honduran elections seem to be taking place on Twitter. As of right now, Juan Orlando Hernandez of the incumbent National Party still leads Xiomara Castro de Zelaya of the Libre Party. Sixty percent of the vote has been counted so far and Hernandez continues to have a comfortable lead of 6 percent or so.

The AP's Alberto Arce has the latest:

The two main competing parties continued to claim victory early in the day, then were not heard from again. No one even celebrated the announced lead of Juan Orlando Hernandez of the governing National Party, who had just over 34 percent of the votes. No balloons, no rallies, nothing.

His closest opponent in an eight-candidate field was Xiomara Castro, who had almost 29 percent of the votes. Castro's husband, former President Manuel Zelaya, was ousted in a 2009 coup that has left the country politically unstable. Castro didn't appear at all Monday, but Zelaya said their party would not accept the results.

"We will defend our triumph, and if it's necessary, we will do it in the streets," he said.

But only about 100 demonstrators rallied for Castro, and the capital's streets were otherwise quiet.

I'll stick with my too early to tell from Sunday night. I'd prefer to wait until most of the votes are counted and the allegations of corruption and fraud are investigated, at least to a certain extent. We don't need every single detail but waiting a few hours or days shouldn't be too much to ask. We all want to know who won and did that person win fairly.

However, two candidates claiming victory (Hernandez and Castro), two candidates claiming fraud (Castro and Nasralla), the snail's pace of the TSE, and premature congratulatory phone calls from OPM, Martinelli, Santos, and Ortega (I think that that they are all confirmed now) are not really helping. Nor is today's silence.

How about we just listen to the US State Department:

The United States congratulates the Honduran people for their peaceful participation in elections on November 24. Honduran and international observers, including those from the U.S. Embassy in Honduras, reported that the process was generally transparent, with strong voter turnout and broad participation by political parties.

The United States calls on Hondurans to await the completion of the counting of official results and to resolve election disputes peacefully through established legal processes.

The United States supports the democratic process and remains committed to continuing our cooperation with the Government and people of Honduras.

 Unfortunately, an extended period of vote counting is just going to fuel uncertainty, anxiety, fear and anger.

Salvadoran-Americans win political office on Long Island

Approximately 100,000 Salvadoran and Salvadoran-Americans live on Long Island. (Long Island is not quite New York City, but it is close.) Only recently, however, have Salvadoran-Americans run for and won elected office. Four Salvadoran-Americans have been elected to office on Long Island, including a Babylon town council seat in 2009, a Uniondale school board seat in 2010, a Brentwood school board seat in 2012 and a Suffolk County legislative seat this year.

The Babylon town council and the Suffolk County legislative seats are occupied by a brother-sister combo of Tony and Monica Martinez

In one of the more contentious races, Salvadoran Monica Martinez, an assistant principal at Brentwood East Middle School, grabbed the Democratic nomination in the primary for Suffolk's 9th Legislative District from longtime incumbent Rick Montano. She then unseated him with 71 percent of the vote in the general election.

Martinez, 36, won in the immigrant hub spanning Brentwood, Central Islip and North Bay Shore by campaigning to end what she characterized as the district's neglect. She knocked on doors to share the story of her American journey as one of four siblings brought from El Salvador by their mother. She told it in English and Spanish

... 

Martinez, of Brentwood, said she was proud to campaign as "a product of the success of immigration" and saw her roots as a positive factor in courting voters.

"We are just another immigrant group following in the paths of others who came before us, including the Irish, the Italians," said her brother Tony Martinez, 44. He became the first Salvadoran elected in the state when he won the Babylon council seat in 2009 and ran unopposed this year.

"Part of it is that people have to integrate into the social fabric of America, and what that means is us getting involved in the democratic process," he said.

Growing up in a predominantly Irish section of Queens, Rockaway Beach, I can't say that I remember many Irish politicians. I interned with Lew Simon, a local Democratic official, and would run into Chuck Schumer, Audrey Pfeiffer, and Greg Meeks, among others. I remember going to a meeting with Geraldine Ferraro sometime in the early 1990s as well.

Anyway, one of the challenges for Salvadoran-American candidates on Long Island is that few Salvadorans actually vote. Estimates are that only about half of the Salvadorans on Long Island are US citizens. They don't appear to be politically active to vote in large numbers but that could be changing. But while it would be nice for local Salvadoran-American candidates to count on the support of Salvadoran-American voters, most people are not going to vote based upon their ethnic heritage anyway.

Either way, it's good to see Salvadoran-Americans running for and winning political office on Long Island.

The dreaded too close to call won't stop me

From Honduras Culture and Politics which is from...

With about 25 percent of the vote in, Juan Hernandez leads with 35 percent to Xiomara Castro's 28 percent. As Honduras Culture and Politics reminds us, however, these are not even actual votes - they "Just added numbers up from tally sheets sent via digital links."

There's still a long way to go in counting and the race is still the dreaded too close to call. That has not stopped either of the leading candidates from declaring victory, of course, but, from what I understand, that doesn't count. Well, at least most of the time.

There seems to be some agreement that the race will tighten when the remaining 75 percent of the vote is counted or whatever it is that the TSE is counting. The final margin of victory might be less than 2 percent. If so, we might begin to hear a lot more about the pre-election day conditions (violence against party activists and use of state resources) that tipped the scales in favor of the incumbent (if that is actually who wins).

Anybody hear (anecdotal of course) whether the congressional vote is likely to mirror the presidential vote?

Hopefully, Hondurans know the winner of today's election prior to elections being held in El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama. Central America might look very different in six months.

Excitement all around Central America

Sorry about the lack of updates. I had a busy week with classes (in-class simulations on global climate change and international terrorism and grading) and I've been trying to catch up on non-class related projects including a book review, an Al Jazeera op-ed and Education for Justice programming.

I had hoped to get a Honduras piece together but so much had already been written - I wasn't sure how much I would be able to add to this weekend's election. I hope to have something together after the vote.

There's been so much going on in Central America that it's difficult to keep track. In addition to this weekend's election, Vice President Biden visited Panama. Is anyone following the (alleged) scandal involving President Martinelli and family receiving kickbacks from Italian contractors to bid on Panama projects (prisons, the Metro)? Any idea if it came up on the Biden trip?

In El Salvador, President Funes, the FMLN and the wheels of justice look like they are finally moving against former administration officials - there are ongoing investigations into Tony Saca, Francisco Flores and a number of other ARENA officials going back over a decade. Unfortunately, the investigations have the air of politicization given that there are less than three months remaining before February's presidential elections. However, these investigations are exactly what we expected following twenty years of ARENA rule. Nothing really against ARENA, but twenty years of uninterrupted rule by any single political party is likely to lead to a good amount of corruption.

And then there's Daniel Ortega's move to strengthen the presidency in Nicaragua nearly fifteen years after he colluded with Arnoldo Aleman to weaken the presidency. Does anyone know whether the specific reforms are intended to undo the previous pact?

I'll probably get around to some of these issues in the future (when classes are over and grades submitted) but at that point, I am going to have to work on the September 11, 2001 and Beyond course that I am teaching during the January intersession.

Have a good weekend and stay warm.

Rios Montt has suffered enough, hasn't he?

Here's  Paul Avakian at Truthout:

Isn't it enough that this man has been dragged through the mud and made to sit through weeks of testimony and hear the tedious details of sadistic group killing?

Isn’t it enough that he was charged with a crime in the first place, and had to explain himself and answer to a judge in his native Guatemala, a country he once saved from reformist troublemakers? 

And then of all things, to be found guilty of the crime charged! Can you imagine the humiliation?

Genocide and crimes against humanity are fairly serious charges, even when they involve peasants. And a guilty verdict is a blemish, even for Efraín Ríos Montt, who at one time bought and sold judges as Guatemala's 1982-83 de-facto president and long-time parliament chief.

On top of it all, the trial court had the nerve the day after the verdict to go ahead and order victim reparations for the thousands apparently tortured, chopped to death, and shot in the head at close range. Talk about presumption and ingratitude.

Just a little tongue-in-cheek (he's not serious).

Why No Mayan Parties in Guatemala?

Kevin Pallister had a interesting article on Why No Mayan Party? Indigenous Movements and National Politics in Guatemala in a recent edition of Latin American Politics and Society. Here is the abstract:

Unlike indigenous social movements in several other Latin American countries, Mayan movements in Guatemala have not formed a viable indigenous-based political party. Despite the prominence of the Mayan social movement and a relatively open institutional environment conducive to party formation, indigenous groups have foregone a national political party in favor of a more dispersed pattern of political mobilization at the local level. This article argues that the availability of avenues for political representation at the municipal level, through both traditional political parties and civic committees, and the effects of political repression and violence have reinforced the fragmentation and localism of indigenous social movements in Guatemala and prevented the emergence of a viable Mayan political party. The result has been a pattern of uneven political representation, with indigenous Guatemalans gaining representation in local government while national political institutions remain exclusionary.

Guatemala is basically a country where one would expect a strong indigenous party to have emerged and done well, but none have. There are low institutional barriers to entry into the party system - it is not really difficult to form a political party and it is not too hard to surpass the 4 or 5 percent threshold needed to survive. Mayan social movements emerged in the 1980s and were very involved in a number of the peace accords between the government and the guerrillas.

While indigenous make up anywhere from 40 percent to 60 percent of the population (depending upon how one asks) but there is no single indigenous or Mayan group. Over twenty Mayan linguistic groups undermine efforts to foster a sense of Mayan identity as do many other religious, cultural, and local differences. These differences have made it difficult to create a national-based Mayan party.

While Mayan groups were then the driving force behind the New Guatemala Democratic Front (FDNG) which competed in the 1995 and 1999 elections, the FDNG was not perceived as a party that represented the interests of the Maya but more simply the left. The URNG's transition to political party and its inability to form an alliance with the FDNG really doomed both organizations.

The creation of civic committees has also undermined efforts to create a national party. There is a tendency for Mayan leaders to run for these local positions without party affiliation. Their participation in local, community political organizations rarely transfer into efforts to develop department-wide or nation-wide political parties. And while the representation of indigenous Guatemalans in traditional political parties has increased, it has done so mainly at the local, mayoral level. There is less representation at the department and national level in elected or party positions.

Kevin, like others, also argue that state repression has depressed indigenous interest in competing for national office. Indigenous tend to report higher levels of fear regarding participation in political activities including running for office, voting, and participation in peaceful demonstrations and resolving community problems. Civil war and postwar violence continue to undermine efforts to forge a national political party.

While increased indigenous participation in civic communities and municipal office have provided new opportunities to engage in local politics, "without sufficient representation in the national party system, many of the promises for indigenous rights have so far gone unfulfilled, and Guatemalan democracy remains less than fully inclusive."

Stephen Kinzer on Glimmers of Hope in Guatemala

Stephen Kinzer has a good read in The New York Review of Books on Glimmers of Hope in Guatemala. I am jealous as to how he is able to weave so much together - from the 1954 coup, the 100th anniversary of the birth of Jacobo Arbenz, the Rios Montt trial, and repression against those who oppose gold mining - into a few short pages. If you've been reading about Guatemala for the last few months, I can't say that there is too much news in the piece.

However, Kinzer does detail some behind-the-scenes moves of those opposed to the Rios Montt trial which I do not think had yet appeared in English.

Leaders of Guatemala’s notoriously reactionary business elite did not seem troubled when prosecutors indicted Ríos Montt for directing a genocidal campaign against the Ixil Maya. He was never part of their inner circle, and they felt no urge to rescue him. As the verdict approached, however, Zury Ríos, the daughter of Ríos Montt and a member of Congress, and several other children of retired military officers met with powerful business leaders. They warned: if you allow Ríos Montt to be convicted, you may be next.

Prominent businessmen had been members of the Council of State, a body Ríos Montt created to help him run the country in the early 1980s. After talking with Zury Ríos and her associates, several of them commissioned a study to determine if they might be held responsible for collaborating with genocide. The analyst they employed told them it was possible. “If you follow the chain of command to the president, the Council of State could also be put on trial,” he told a Guatemalan journalist. “Anyone who collaborated with the army in any way could be forced to answer in court.”

In view of this threat, twelve business leaders, including six former cabinet ministers and two former vice-presidents, issued a declaration asserting, “The charge of genocide is a legal fabrication that has nothing to do with the wish of victims to dignify their lost loved ones.” They followed this with a sustained publicity campaign using the slogan “Guatemala Is Not Genocidal.” President Otto Pérez Molina, a retired general, said former guerrilla leaders should be on trial instead of Ríos Montt because “it was the guerrillas who brought war to the Ixil triangle,” referring to a region where guerrillas hid and many thousands of Indians were killed. But he did not stop the trial from proceeding.

The guilty verdict, which came on May 10, with an eighty-year prison sentence, was a judicial affirmation of Ríos Montt’s role in one of the most murderous military campaigns in Latin American history. An estimated 200,000 people were killed, and a limited United Nations–sponsored commission later concluded that 93 percent of them died at the hands of government forces. Ten days after the verdict was pronounced, the Constitutional Court, citing an error in legal procedure, annulled it. That pleased business leaders who had been members of Ríos Montt’s Council of State. It also calmed the fears of dozens of well-to-do Guatemalans who, during the 1980s, flew combat support missions and carried out bombing raids for the army in their own planes and helicopters.

Of course he has some, but Rios Montt does not have a lot of support in Guatemala. If he did, he probably would not have been put on trial. Even during the course of the trial, few people turned out to support him. There was a lot of coverage in the press supportive of him but not much else. However, as I think that I've mentioned here before, people moved against the trial because a guilty conviction would not have been just about Rios Montt; a guilty verdict would condemn all those who supported him and the military project, to varying degrees, including the US government and evangelical community and the Guatemalan military and economic elite. What CACIF and others feared most was that prosecutors would come for them next.

Did that cause individual members of the Constitutional Court to change their opinions and reverse the ruling? I don't know. I'm still in the camp that they were leaning towards throwing out the conviction for some reason, no mater what.

Kinzer emerges from Guatemala somewhat optimistic.

It is still easy, as it has been for most of the last half-century, to see Guatemala as a dark place with no exit. The deep inequality that has plagued the country since the days of conquest continues. So does the culture of violence that has enveloped Guatemala since the 1954 coup. Yet the opening of the police archive, Ríos Montt’s conviction, and the commemoration of Árbenz can be seen as a historical sequence, testifying to the resilience of a devastated society and offering glimmers of hope that were all but unimaginable just a few years ago.

In 2009, I took part in a discussion where we mostly all agreed that Guatemala would simply muddle along for the next few years. In some ways that has been true especially compared to what has happened in neighboring Honduras. 2009 was a really interesting year - the June coup in Honduras, the Rosenberg murder/suicide in Guatemala, and the election of the FMLN in El Salvador. There was a lot of uncertainty about the future of the region. And Guatemala's actually done a little better than muddle through, that is, until the second half of the year.

Arrest in Cristina Siekavizza murder

Ten days ago, Roberto Barreda was arrested in Merida, Mexico. He is a Guatemalan suspected of killing his wife, Cristina Siekavizza, and then kidnapping their two children in July 2011. Barreda was arrested in a joint Guatemalan-Mexican operation.

There have been fruitless searches for Cristina Siekavizza’s body. The prosecution in Guatemala points Barreda Leon as the prime suspect for Cristina Siekavizza’s death, as traces of blood were found in his car, so it is believed that he got rid the body to clear evidence. Even the Barreda’s mother was detained for alleged involvement in the disappearance of evidence.

Cristina Siekavizza's disappearance and suspected murder received extensive coverage in Guatemala and the US press. Authorities are still piecing the puzzle together but it looks to get interesting. Barreda fled to Mexico after first securing false travel documents in Belize. Belize is apparently the go to place for criminals to secure travel and nationality documents. However, Barreda would return to Belize to meet his lawyer and to receive money from his family in Guatemala (Guat Fugitive Facilitated in Belize?). After his lawyer died, family members would travel to Belize to provide Barreda with money.

According to Siglo XXI

“The authorities believe that a criminal enterprise, with ties in several countries, helped him change his name and that of his children, and obtain new travel and government identification documents; in the birth certificates of the children it is noted that they are of Mexican nationality and are recorded with one year less than their actual age.”

Belize has been working through several immigration scandals over the last few months and this looks like one to add to the list as Belize again makes international headlines for all the wrong reasons.

According to Plaza Publica's Martín Rodríguez Pellecer, over one thousand teenage girls went missing in Guatemala last year. While in all likelihood Cristina is no longer alive, at least the authorities were able to track down her alleged killer and rescue her two children. They did so because her family has pushed the case from the very start. Not all victims get the same attention.

There should be more to come as Barreda could not have made it out of Guatemala alone or have survived in Mexico for as long as he did without support from home. Barreda's mother was arrested at one point - she is a former Supreme Court justice. We shall see.

Where did Pope Francis come from?

In an article from the Guardian yesterday, Jonathan Freedland argues that [Why] even atheists should be praying for Pope Francis. The argument is not really about atheists, but simply about liberals - live modestly, serve the poor, attack structures of injustice in one's own life and in society.

However, I did find this one paragraph interesting as it starts to answer some of my questions from yesterday which is - where exactly did Pope Francis come from?

Of course, he is not perfect. His record in Argentina during the era of dictatorship and "dirty war" is far from clean. "He started off as a strict authoritarian, reactionary figure," says Vallely. But, aged 50, Francis underwent a spiritual crisis from which, says his biographer, he emerged utterly transformed. He ditched the trappings of high church office, went into the slums and got his hands dirty.

On the other hand, that does not really clarify matters.There's still the question of pre-mid-century Bergoglio and what it means that his past is far from clean. Here's another article from NCR from last month.

Scavo defends Bergoglio's choice not to engage in overt opposition by comparison to the role of Pope Pius XII during World War II – the price of being able to save lives behind the scenes, Scavo contends, was being careful in public.

"What use would a human rights champion be in jail, or even dead?" Scavo said.

"At the time Bergoglio wasn't known, so a public denunciation by him wouldn't have had any effect on the leaders of the coup," he said. "Let's also not forget that the regime assassinated roughly thirty bishops, priests and sisters, as well a hundred catechists believed to be communists."

Bergoglio was the Provincial Superior of the Jesuits in Argentina. He might not have been known personally but that position would have given him a certain level of protection that others did not have and a platform from which to speak out against the abuses committed by the regime and the guerrillas domestically and internationally.

I don't get the impression that he collaborated with the junta. He chose not to speak out publicly. Instead he chose to work behind the scenes to help those he could. It's a defensible position even though victims of state repression were asking for the Church to speak out against the violence. I don't know what I would have done under those circumstances.

I understand that many of the attacks against the current Pope are from those who are anti-Church and anti-clerical. But not all the questions are coming from those individuals. As a Catholic and as someone who studies Latin America, I;d also like to hear more from the Pope on his actions and in-actions during a very dark period in Argentine history.

More files from Argentine "Dirty War"

The meticulous nature of the Cold War military regimes of Latin America continue to surprise. We've had boatloads of documents discovered in Guatemala and Brazil years after we would have thought that most or all had been destroyed. In El Salvador, there have been some documents discovered (yellow book) and there is hope that the military archives have a great deal more information that will shed light on the disappeared.

Cleaning crews in Argentina recently discovered 1,500 files and 280 documents related to blacklisted artists and journalists who threatened the regime in one way or another and what sounds like minutes or reports on the inner workings of the military junta that ruled between 1976 and 1983.

Among the disclosed information is an attempt to supress discussion of crimes allegedly carried out by the junta. In one document, military officials are instructed to avoid referring to anyone as “disappeared”, a term that became common currency during the period because of the military’s penchant for burning victims’ bodies or throwing drugged prisoners from aircraft into rivers so relatives would never find them. Instead, officials were told to talk of “requests about the whereabouts of a person”.

The documents also reveal that there were 280 meetings between the junta inner circle between 1976 and 1983, according to original records pulled out of the Condor Building.

Among the artists found in the documents are Mercedes Sosa, Federico Luppi, Hector Alterio, Julio Cortazar, and Norma Aleandro.

Who is @Pontifex Pope Francis panel discussion at @univofscranton featuring @CentAmPolMike pic.twitter.com/4O3YPbl1ZW
— Teresa Grettano (@tgrett) November 15, 2013

I think many of us are hoping that there are some reference in one way or another to Father Jorge Mario Bergoglio better known today as Pope Francis. Last night I participated in a panel discussion at the University of Scranton on Who is Pope Francis? It was more of a love-fest, actually. I started off by saying that I liked Pope Francis as well and have been pretty impressed with his first year as Pontiff. However, I was still confused and wondered where he had come from.

Questions remain as to what he did, or did not do, as Provincial of the Jesuits during the Dirty War. While we know some stories, I am looking forward to reading Bergoglio's List which is an account of the many ways in which Father Bergoglio protected those in harms' way.

The "list" of Bergoglio is a collection of highly diverse personal stories, which make for exhilarating reading, whose common characteristic is that the people in them were saved by him.

There is Alicia Oliveira, the first woman to become a judge in the criminal courts in Argentina and also the first to be dismissed after the military coup, non-Catholic and not even baptized, who went underground and was taken by Bergoglio, in the trunk of his car, to the college of San Miguel, to see her three children.

There are the three seminarians of the bishop of La Rioja, Enrique Angelelli, who was killed in 1976 by members of the military in a staged auto accident, after he had discovered who was truly responsible for numerous assassinations.

There is Alfredo Somoza, the scholar saved without his knowledge.

There are Sergio and Ana Gobulin, who worked in the slums and were married by Father Bergoglio, he arrested and she wanted, both saved and expatriated with the help of the Italian vice-consul in Argentina at the time, Enrico Calamai, another hero of the story.

Father Bergoglio's actions during the dictatorship look better today than they did months ago but I still don't know.

Pro-Búsqueda attacked in El Salvador

Pro-Búsqueda's offices in San Salvador were broken into last night by at least three armed men. They tied-up the guard and then set fire to its archives and stole several computers. Pro-Búsqueda is a non-profit agency that has helped to locate at least 235 children who went missing during the civil war. Some of these children were stolen by Salvadorans military officials and a number were eventually adopted by US and European families.

"This is clear sabotage on our work," said director Ester Alvarenga, adding that she had not yet been allowed to enter the offices after the fire. "We don't know what documents they destroyed or took, but this is an attack against our work."

Official human rights prosecutor David Morales suggested the attack could be related to an appeal before the country's Supreme Court that would eliminate the amnesty of people who committed grave war crimes, and he asked the attorney general to make a priority of investigating the attack.

"They have the responsibility to look at the possibility that this was a politically motivated attack intending to intimidate Probusqueda because of their work in defending human rights," Morales said.

The Washington Office on Latin America released the following:

WOLA is deeply concerned by this event and its possible connection with the debate about amnesty for human rights violations committed during the civil war. The break-in at ProBúsqueda comes only weeks after the unexpected closure of Tutela Legal—an organization that played a critical role in documenting abuses during the civil war—and the announcement that the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court has agreed to hear an appeal to the constitutionality of the General Amnesty Law. It is crucial that the civil war-era files of human rights defenders are preserved. We urge the Salvadoran government to condemn today's attack and to investigate and punish those responsible. We also urge the government to take steps to protect the various sources of data on human rights violations throughout the country.

I'm worried about the situation, as I'm sure most people are, and couldn't agree more with WOLA.

A little help for institutional reform in Guatemala

Some interesting stories on international support for transforming Guatemala's weak, corrupt criminal justice system.

An NGO to be proud of, if there’s any justice talks about the work of the Justice Education Society.

The US Agency for International Development has a story on Renewing Police Reform Efforts in Guatemala.

Finally, Brain Hardzinki, Suzette Grillot, and Matt Addison have an interview with Adriana Beltran in Changing Guatemala's Decades-Old Culture Of Corruption.

GRILLOT: What about generational change? I mean, is this going to change, I suppose, with the generations as you have some of these other people leave power and young people coming up?

BELTRÁN: I mean, that’s the hope of many. You know, one of the questions that I’ve often asked myself, particularly when it comes to the elite, is if a new generation, particularly given the concerns of organized crime and even threats that they face, will that lead them to support a more reformative agenda? Other changes, now, even within the police and military, because you have the old guard kind of leaving and how can you, you know, push reform processes to ensure that these new people that are emerging have a different vision of what their country ought to look like. But also, how do you build a civil society, and how do you get generations that, you know, in the case of Guatemala, didn’t necessarily experience the conflict, to understand their own history? You know, and that, in one of the setbacks or issues of the peace accords that was never implanted was the need to include in the curriculum mention of the conflict, and that hasn’t happened. So, often times, we are talking to younger Guatemalans, they don’t really know their own history.

Now with the dean of the graduate school of social sciences at the Francisco Marroquín University in Guatemala City, I am not that optimistic.Take a look at his latest. I don't think that he is entirely wrong, well mostly, but he's got some dozies in here.

What Was Behind the Closure of Tutela Legal in El Salvador?

Julia Young, a professor of Latin American History at The Catholic University of America, Ricardo Cevallos, partner at Consortium Centro America Abogados in El Salvador, and I have comments in the Inter-American Dialogue's Latin American Advisor answering What Was Behind the Closure of Tutela Legal in El Salvador?

Julia writes about the importance of Tutela Legal's archives and that

If the law is overturned, the documents in Tutela Legal's archives would provide crucial  evidence for future human rights cases. Thus, some activists and scholars argue that the closure of Tutela Legal is an effort to obstruct justice. Until the Salvadoran church offers a forthright explanation, however, the archbishop's true motives are unknown.

Ricardo believes that even if the Constitutional Court rules that the amnesty law is unconstitutional, it will not rule that the entire law is unconstitutional. He also believes that El Salvador is

unprepared to face such a strong challenge to the political structure that has been built from the peace agreements, but judging from recent Supreme Court decisions, anything can happen.

I concluded with

Given the changing nature of the archbishop's discourse, I suspect that the decision was related to the possibility that the attorney general would seek access to the office's documents in order to overturn the 1993 amnesty law which the archbishop opposes. Even if the Constitutional Court annuls the amnesty, however, it is not clear how many cases would move forward given the country's 10-year statute of limitations.

We're all speculating of course. Will the court strike down the entire law or part of it? What crimes will be open to prosecution, if any? How will a case move forward with Quijano or Sanchez Ceren in the presidency? Lots of legal and political uncertainty.

[Aryeh Neier also shared his thoughts a few weeks ago in an interesting post.]

Human development agreement in Guatemala

The Inter-American Dialogue asks Will a New Development Accord Succeed in Guatemala?

In early October, Guatemala's president, members of his cabinet, as well as business and religious leaders in the Central American nation agreed to a "historico acuerdo de desarrollo humano," which commits them to work together to reduce malnutrition, improve education and provide youths with the skills necessary to be successful in the labor market. Will the accord be implemented successfully and achieve its goals? Is such a framework for cooperation a model that could improve social conditions elsewhere in Latin America? What are the most important components of such an agreement's success or failure?

I can't say that I had heard of such an accord. Go check out the responses. I'm with Jeffrey Puryear, vice president for social policy at the InterAmerican Dialogue and director of the Dialogue's education program, PREAL. The accord represents an important achievement simply by bringing together leaders from government, the business community, civil society, the Churches and elsewhere to map out an economic plan for the next decade or so. Howeve, Puryear argues

Turning agreement into action will be a challenge. An important question will be whether the country has the political will and institutional capacity to develop the activities proposed.But getting such a broad and diverse group to sign up was a big first step. It marks an effort seen elsewhere in Latin America and the Caribbean to turn some policies, particularly in the social area, into 'politicas de estado' (state policies) that are based on multi-party agreements, long-term in character, and operate above the tidal forces of partisan politics. If the leaders of Guatemala's civil society can build consensus on detailed strategies for reducing malnutrition, raising education quality and providing workforce skills, they will have made a real contribution.

 Maybe Matt will be able to add some more insight.

Homicides increase in Guatemala...but rate remains nearly the same

Carlos A. Mendoza at the Central American Business Intelligence (CABI) reports that Guatemala's homicide rate is on pace to increase 3 percent in 2013 compared to 2012.

Taking homicides and population growth into consideration, as one should, the rate will finish at approximately 35.2 homicides per 100,000 Guatemalans. That is up from 34.33 homicides per 100,000 in 2012. Given the uncertainty surrounding population estimates and actual homicides, for me, that means no change.

That's at the national level but that doesn't mean that there hasn't been movement within Guatemala. The homicide rate is set to increase in 14 departments (Chimaltenango, Chiquimula, El Progreso, Escuintla, Guatemala, Izabal, Jutiapa, Petén, Quetzaltenango, Retalhuleu, San Marcos, Sololá, Suchitepéquez and Zacapa) and to decrease in the remaining 8.

New blog on Guatemala at Water & Politics

Sean Cox at Water & Politics has two recent posts worth checking out. The first post is on support for Efrain Rios Montt in Nebaj based on recent David Stoll work. I haven't gotten around to David's paper yet. However, he argues that while war crimes were committed in the Nebaj area of the country, genocide was not. His argument seems to be that people were also killed for other reasons (political support for the guerrillas) and that everybody was doing it (the EGP).

The second post is Guatemalan government's seizure of five ports through the use of the military to cut down on corruption. Nothing like looking tough on corruption.

Sean also brought it to my attention that Google+ might have been depressing reader comments. And within hours of getting rid of Google+ to track comments, comments seemed to have picked up again. Thanks.

Sean is currently on a Fulbright Public Policy fellowship to Guatemala so be sure to add his blog to your reading list.

I'm always open to suggestions to feel free to post them in comments or send them privately to me.

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen criticizes FSLN power grab in Nicaragua

U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) is worried that recently proposed reforms in Nicaragua threatens whatever is left of democracy and would “allow him to retain a stranglehold over the people of Nicaragua.”

“It is troubling that Ortega, with the help of his cronies in the Nicaraguan National Assembly, continues to trample on democratic freedoms of millions of his own people, undermine U.S. interests in the region, and collaborate with other rogue regimes like Cuba and Venezuela,” the Republican lawmaker said. “The Obama Administration stood idly by during the last illegitimate elections in Nicaragua and these power grabs are the consequences of our silence. I urge the Administration to denounce this attempt to further dismantle the democratic process to deny the people of Nicaragua the fundamental freedoms that we often take for granted.”

Look, I'm not a big fan of Ortega's dismantling of Nicaragua's institutions and the proposed constitutional reforms most likely should go before a constituent assembly but Ros-Lehtinen is a member of the US Congress. She embarrasses her constituents and all Americans when she criticizes the elected members of the Nicaraguan National Assembly as "cronies" and describes Cuba and Venezuela as "rogue regimes."

On the other hand, there are always US members of Congress who are less than diplomatic when discussing relations with other countries. There are 535 of them. As with the recent letters by members of congress calling for interference in favor of the right-wing parties in Honduras and El Salvador's elections, I do hope that the Obama administration is smart enough not to worsen the situation.

So what's going on in Honduras?

It's still a 50/50 race for the Honduran presidency between Libre's Xiomara Castro de Zelaya and Juan Orlando Hernández of the National Party. Whoever wins is going to have a rough time governing a country with such economic, social and political problems especially given that the winning candidate is unlikely to secure greater than 40 percent of the vote, if that much, and a majority in congress.

Over 3,600 women have been murdered between 2012 and 2013, half during President Porfirio Lobo's term.

Guillermo Peña Panting argues that Honduras needs to strengthen its political institutions and not buy into the cult of personality of its politicians. Not sure that we'd agree on much more than that however.

Ramiro Sebastián Fúnez asks whether Honduras' Castro de Zelaya Could be the Country’s First Female, Openly Socialist President.

The thought of electing a female and openly socialist president might have been an abstract notion to many in pre-coup Honduras, which has historically been the most conservative country in Central America.

Even if Castro de Zelaya is not elected, constituents will continue to demonstrate against the current leadership and promote her party, her platforms and her ideas as the country struggles to dust off decades of foreign exploitation, crime and inequality.

I wish the next president, whoever he or she is, the best of luck.

Mark Weisbrot argues that November's presidential vote is a key test of whether Honduras can return to democracy after the US-supported 2009 coup. I guess he means that democracy will only return to the country if Castro de Zelaya wins. I agree that the US did not do all it could to return Manuel Zelaya to office following the June 2009 coup but I guess that I wouldn't characterize it as a US-supported coup in the way that one would interpret that statement.

Not in all cases obviously, but the Obama administration has been encouraging different actors in each country to resolve their disputes on their own. Differing constitutional interpretations in El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Guatemala come to mind.

Daniel the Indispensable

Oswaldo Rivas/Reuters

The Nicaraguan congress is moving towards reforming the country's constitution in order to remove the ban on consecutive presidential re-election and to bring the constitution in line with the Supreme Court's controversial 2010 decision.

The move would seem to be a potential setback to democracy in Nicaragua and to the institutionalization of reforms implemented during President Daniel Ortega's most recent two terms in office. There is no obvious heir to Daniel and it does not appear that he envisions anyone else occupying the presidency, Sandinista or not, anytime soon.

President Ortega maintains high approval ratings and the Nicaraguan people seem content with his presidency. The Supreme Court found a ban on re-election to be unconstitutional and now the National Assembly is considering a change to the constitution to reflect what the court determined to be so.

It might not be the wisest decision in the world but I can't seem to get all worked up about it.

On the other hand, the other reforms are indeed troubling.(More thoughts later)

Rios Montt gets a reprieve in Guatemala

On Monday, I gave a talk at Washington College in Chestertown, Maryland on the Efrain Rios Montt trial. The campus was beautiful and I can honestly say that I am jealous about the resources available to the students and the faculty there. Thanks for the great opportunity.

Most of what I discussed during my talk is familiar to those of you who read the blog regularly. For some reason I was not surprised that Rios Montt was brought to trial. There had been a number of positive developments in the Guatemalan judicial system (CICIG and international support in general, Paz y Paz) and changes in the political system (the FRG's fall from grace and Rios Montt's loss of immunity).

I also thought that a guilty verdict was a foregone conclusion. Rios Montt was president at the time that the Guatemalan government carried out a state policy of repression that caused genocide and crimes against humanity. The court simply needed to reach a verdict to get to the expected decision. I can't say that I was overly surprised by the Constitutional Court's decision either. I still don't think that I understand the majority's legal rationale, but politically it seemed as if the court was set on voiding the conviction. It didn't matter how.

During Monday's talk I said that it was maybe 50/50 that Efrain Rios Montt would once again see the inside of a Guatemalan courtroom. The re-scheduling of the trial for April 2014 and the questions about how the trial would be restarted and who would oversee it, led me to be pretty pessimistic. Unfortunately, my fears (and those of many others) look to be coming realized.

A Guatemalan court official says the trial of former dictator Efrain Rios Montt will restart in January 2015 in response to the Constitutional Court throwing out an earlier conviction of the strongman for the massacre of thousands of Maya.

Court secretary Wilbert Molina said Tuesday that the panel of judges will be occupied with other trials in 2013 and 2014.

Molina says the trial is set to start Jan. 5, 2015, because appeals in the process have led to postponements.

As I've said before, the recent trial of Rios Montt was not so much about proving that genocide occurred (the UN truth commission and others have already found evidence that it did) as it was holding someone accountable (Rios Montt and Rodriguez Sanchez). The courts did find someone accountable before the Constitutional Court undid that ruling. However, the reversal of the conviction does not reverse the historical fact.

On the other hand, it is still possible that the rescheduling of the trial for January 2015 is nothing unusual and is simply the result of a backlog on the calendar. Remember, the trial against Rios Montt had originally been scheduled to start in August. In February, however, an opening on the docket appeared and the trial's start date was moved up to March 19th. The defense howled but few seemed to care. Now the shoe is on the other foot with a backlog causing the trial's delay.

Reducing impunity and other Guatemalan news

IPS has a new article on you know who - The Woman Who Reduced Impunity in Guatemala. The article is pretty good. It covers many of the changes in the attorney general's office and concerns as to what is likely to happen in 2014 when Claudia Paz y Paz leaves her office.

She says she is immersed in the task of institutionalising the changes she has introduced in the public prosecutor’s office, and warns that if her successor is not willing to give continuity to the reforms, the progress made will be reversed.

Garzón said “she has made an enormous effort towards strengthening the institution itself. The question is whether it will be capable of weathering her absence when she’s gone.

“What do the political forces want? To destroy what the public prosecutor’s office has done or to continue along the path that has begun to be followed? It’s a political question, and the outlook is very uncertain,” he said.

Hopefully, Paz y Paz seeks another term. She is undecided but another four years wouldn't hurt. I don't think that Paz y Paz or CICIG are indispensable but I would not be happy about losing Paz y Paz in December 2014 and CICIG in September 2015. How about a referendum on whether each should be retained?

Guatemalan prosecutors plan to present a petition at the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) in Washington to somehow turn the clock back and reinstate the conviction of former dictator Efrain Rios Montt.

A family torn apart by war in Guatemala is reunited by Facebook. Terrific news.

Finally, looks to improve its security situation by copying Colombia's model. I know murders are not the only way to measure violence but it still seems strange to me that Guatemala's murder rate of 34 per 100,000 is considered considerably worse than Colombia's 31 per 100,000. Guatemala's rate has been closer to that of Colombia for the last several years but because of geography we prefer to lump it together with El Salvador whose murder rate was 71 as of 2011 (a bit over 40 last year) and with Honduras whose rate is approximately 85. And then there's Mexico with 22.

Venezuela...not as generous as it used to be

Venezuela isn't being as generous as it used to be. Last month I wrote about how Venezuela was cutting back on its economic assistance towards Nicaragua. The recent news is that Guatemala is withdrawing from the Petrocaribe oil alliance. Petrocaribe was established by the late President Hugo Chavez in 2005 to improve support for Venezuela by allowing other states to purchase oil from them at low rates and with flexible payment schedules. Actually, they were nearly giving it all away.

Guatemala is withdrawing from the agreement because it could not come to an agreement with Venezuelan authorities to bring the interest rate on purchases below 2 percent. A Guatemalan spokesperson stated "We did not get the benefits that the country hoped for."

Venezuela's foreign minister, on the other hand, stated that "we are advancing toward a new phase with Petrocaribe from an energy alliance to a productive energy alliance." That sure sounds like we are altering the terms of our agreements so that we actually make some money on the deal and that's not such a bad thing.

In other signs that Petrocaribe is suffering, or at least entering a new phase, relates to Honduras. They joined Petrocaribe in May but they've been waiting for a fuel shipment since August. The delay has apparently been caused by "technical problems" in Venezuela's refineries.

The Pumpkin Festival in El Salvador

From NBC News

During the traditional "La Calbiuza" parade, or "Pumpkin Festival," on the eve of All Souls Day, participants dress in haunting costumes based on characters from indigenous Salvadoran mythology. The parade takes place in Tonacatepeque on the outskirts of the Salvadoran capital. 

Go check out the rest of the photos.

Canadian reality show set in Guatemala

Anna-Claire Bevan has the story on a new reality show set in Guatemala called The Project: Guatemala.

Most reality TV shows rely on scripted confessionals and spoiled, fame-hungry contestants keen to accomplish their esteemed celebrity status by doing very little. “The Project: Guatemala” is different.

It may initially look the same, with its cast of privileged 20-somethings who believe they’re embarking on a six-week trip to paradise, but the show soon changes when the pampered participants discover they are heading to rural Guatemala to build a community center for orphaned and abandoned children.

“They were shocked to say the least,” said the show’s host, Canadian adventurer Ray Zahab. “Let’s face it, this group of young people did not see this coming – it was out of their landscape of thought.”

Nine Canadians traveled with Zahab to Tecpán, 50 kilometers northwest of Guatemala City, to Project Somos, a Canadian nongovernmental organization that works with Guatemalan children in need.

“They could leave whenever they wanted to – this wasn't about voting anyone out. But they had to want to stay and work hard,” Zahab said. “It was very real and very difficult for many of them.”

 Let me just say that the show doesn't appeal to me but to each his own.

US Congressmen seek interference in El Salvador's elections - what else is new?

I submitted a draft of my Freedom House report for El Salvador a few weeks ago. Here is part of my opening salvo:

The independence of the Salvadoran government to make decisions concerning its people was challenged in 2013 following public and private pressure applied by US officials, including US Ambassador Mari Carmen Aponte, US Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT) and the chairs of the House and Senate Western Hemisphere Subcommittees,  the operations of a variety of Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our Americas (ALBA) programs, litigation by multinational corporations, and infiltration by transnational criminal organizations.

The US’ support for initiatives such as the passage of the Public-Private Partnership (P3) law in May, debate on a second Millennium Corporation Compact for El Salvador in September, and investment in a number of programs related to the Partnership for Growth have caused friction with the President of El Salvador, the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN), and the business sector and civil society. 

Apparently I am going to have to update the report and strengthen my criticism of US and foreign interference. Take a look at the Matt Salmon and Albio Sires' latest interference in El Salvador's upcoming election. (h/t @LuisMontes). In case you don't know, Salmon is the Chairman of the Western Hemisphere Subcommittee and Sires is the Ranking Member.