Finding our own way: Guatemala's Policy on Drugs

The Guatemalan National Commission for Policy Reform on Drugs delivered its preliminary Analytic Report on the Problem of Drugs in Guatemala a few days ago. Take a look at the report to see what Carlos Mendoza and his colleagues have to say.

Here's the brief English version:

After eight months of deliberation and gathering of information with different national and international governmental policy implementers, including the U.S. Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (INL), the Commissioners have concluded the following:

Guatemalan authorities do not have enough data to properly define the drug problem in the country. We do not know the actual extent of land where illicit drugs (poppy and marijuana) are cultivated in Guatemala. We are uncertain about the target population for synthetic drugs produced in laboratories recently dismantled by the National Police. We do not know basic facts such as the price of cocaine and its purity on the streets of Guatemala. These facts are needed to prove or disprove important hypotheses, like the one concerning drug traffickers paying in kind for local services (transportation or security, for instance). We have no idea about the current levels of consumption among the Guatemalan population.

The drug problem has been historically defined and framed by the U.S. Government, given the lack of interest shown by Guatemalan authorities in the past, as evidenced by restricted annual national budgets and the lack of information needed to understand the size of the problem. In this sense, the Commission has stated that the drug policy has been an orphan with a foster parent, and has recommended to the Guatemalan Government to regain custody of its own child.

The first step is to generate enough data about local production, trafficking and consumption of illicit drugs to properly define the problem and, after a rigorous evidence-based analysis, select solutions. Drug policies have to be defined in Guatemala, by and for Guatemalans. As has happened in the states of Colorado and Washington in its territory, the U.S. Government needs to respect our own space for innovation and experimentation. We are, indeed, finding our own way.

The Pan-American Post offers some thoughts.

Unlike other regional leaders like Juan Manuel Santos and Jose Mujica, Guatemalan President Otto Perez Molina has cultivated a reputation as a crusader for widening the drug policy debate in the hemisphere, but has so far made no major push to enact reforms in his own country. However, last week saw some important progress on drug policy reform at a national level, when a civil society commission appointed by Perez Molina released a preliminary report on drug laws (.PDF file here) in the country on Thursday, as La Prensa Libre reports.

Like the OAS resolution, the report does not call for any radical changes. However, it raises some important points about drug policy in Guatemala, and its conclusion makes some sensible, albeit cautious, recommendations. For example, the report notes that Guatemala’s approach to drugs runs “counter to the legislative developments” elsewhere in the region, and that its failure to specify which amounts of drugs can be classified as destined for personal consumption rather than sale leaves considerable room for judges to impose their own standards. Among other recommendations, the commission calls for closer monitoring of black market pricing and purity data, for a deeper study of the “cost of the current drug policies” in Guatemala, and for a rigorous analysis of the size of the country’s illicit poppy crop.

According to the report, a final version will be presented to the president in December, and the commission’s mandate was recently extended to the end of this year. After that, it remains to be seen what will come of Perez Molina’s claims that the report “might lead to” a bill legalizing marijuana and poppy cultivation.

Drug war and pandilla articles in LARR

The Latin American Research Review has two articles of interest to readers.The first is Drug Wars Collateral Damage: US Counternarcotic Aid and Human Rights in the Americas by Horace A. Bartilow of the University of Kentucky.

Abstract: Existing case-study research suggests that the recent increase in human rights violations in Latin America is attributed to the US-funded drug war. This narrative, which is referred to as the collateral damage perspective, stands in contrast to US human rights law, which makes governments’ respect for human rights a precondition to receive aid. The apparent endogeneity between aid and human rights introduces bias that casts serious doubts on the validity of the collateral damage narrative. In addressing endogeneity, this article presents a simultaneous instrumental variable analysis of the human rights effects of US counternarcotic aid in the Americas.

The results show that while counternarcotic aid to regimes increases overall violations of human rights, this effect is greater among democracies than autocracies. And with the exception of torture, this finding is consistent when disappearances, political imprisonment, and extrajudicial killings are also considered. The implication of this research suggests that policy makers in Washington risk losing regional support for US drug control policies if US laws that govern the allocation of aid are not effectively implemented.

The second article is  Pandillas and Security in Central America by Thomas C. Bruneau of the Naval Postgraduate School.

Abstract: This article introduces the topic of pandillas (street gangs) and their implications for security in Central America. There is minimal scholarly literature on pandillas and security. In part this is due to serious challenges in analyzing pandillas. First, pandilla members consider truth to be situational; data derived directly from them is suspect. Second, those who know most about them are involved in NGOs that rely on foreign assistance for their work. The project reports they produce go to funders abroad and are generally not published. Third, to research and write on pandillas is dangerous.

I can't say that the articles excited me too much but maybe they'll work for you.

Successful drug reforms require something Guatemala just doesn't have - strong institutions

The World Politics Review has a brief interview with Adriana Beltran, a very smart Guatemala observer, in Global Insider: To Succeed, Guatemala Drug Reforms First Require Strong Institutions. Adriana discusses some sources of violence as well as recent efforts to reduce crime in Guatemala.

But everyone wants to know what is going on with President Otto Perez Molina's interest in drug legalization and decriminalization (one of my early Al Jazeera op-eds).

WPR: What effect would marijuana and opium poppy legalization, as proposed by Molina, have on criminal actors and the violence they cause?

Beltran: Molina has been an outspoken proponent of drug policy reform on the international stage, but so far has done little on the domestic level. One of the proposals he has put forth is the use of Guatemalan opium poppy production for medicinal purposes. The proposal deserves consideration and is currently being evaluated by a recently established advisory commission.

Beyond increasing availability of medicines, the proposal could reduce a significant source of revenue for criminal groups and potentially make those groups weaker and smaller. Such a shift, however, could also result in criminal organizations tapping other illicit revenue streams and could even contribute to increased violence sparked by competition for dwindling resources. 

Establishing a regulated market in opium poppy is a complex undertaking, particularly given the deep-rooted problems of corruption. To be successful, it would have to be done on a step-by-step basis and in the context of a broader rural development strategy to improve the livelihoods of small farmers who grow poppy. It would also require strong and effective institutions, which the country currently lacks. If Guatemala is serious about legalizing the medical use of poppy, it needs to be serious about fighting corruption and strengthening its institutions.

Legalization and regulating currently illicit drugs is going to be quite the challenge. Given Guatemala's institutions and historical track record, I can't imagine that many people are optimistic that the government is going to be able to pull this one off.

Given that next year's elections are seventeen months away, I wouldn't hold my breath.