Tuesday, 31 December 2013

Better But Still Terrible...in Guatemala

The story of the year in Guatemala was obviously the trial of former dictator Efrain Rios Montt and his intelligence chief Jose Rodriguez Sanchez. After several weeks of intense proceedings, a three-judge panel found Rios Montt guilty of genocide and crimes against humanity and sentenced him to eighty years in jail. At the same time, Rodriguez Sanchez was found not guilty because he oversaw intelligence rather than operations.

Days after the historic trial, the Constitutional Court made a tortured decision that overlooked all the defense's irregularities and unlawful actions and that elevated what procedural problems they saw from the prosecution and, more importantly, the judges to constitutional issues. Politically some people might be happy with the decision, like the President who still wants amnesty so that there can be reconciliation (!), but the Constitutional Court's actions were not a shining moment for the criminal justice system.

Unfortunately, the collapse of the Rios Montt trial overshadowed numerous successes in the courts this year. Prensa Libre has a list of thirteen high impact cases that showed progress (not necessarily complete) in 2013.
1.- Dejan cuerpos de dos niñas y dos mujeres...Por este hecho, Eddie Barrera Cincuir y Edilberto Otoniel Orozco Orozco  fueron capturados, procesados y condenados a 180 años de prisión.Carlos Miranda López fue sentenciado a tres años de cárcel, por encubrimiento propio, y Darwin Otoniel Orozco Miranda fue absuelto.
2.- Procesados policías por robo de droga....Nueve investigadores de la Policía Nacional Civil enfrentan proceso penal como supuestos miembros de una banda dedicada al robo de droga.
3.- Pandilleros vinculados con  242 crímenes....El Juzgado A de Mayor Riesgo tramita un proceso en contra de ocho supuestos jefes de la Mara Salvatrucha, a quienes el Ministerio Público señala por haber ordenado la muerte de 242 personas por no pagar extorsión. La Fiscalía indica que los crímenes ocurrieron entre el 2010 y el 2011, mientras varios de los sindicados estaban presos.
4.- MP relaciona a político con narcotráfico...El exsecretario departamental del partido Compromiso, Renovación y Orden de Jutiapa, Aníbal Menéndez Rodríguez, enfrenta proceso penal como presunto miembro de una red que trafica droga. La Policía capturó a  Menéndez Rodríguez el 12 de septiembre, junto a cuatro personas más. Se presume que es financista de una agrupación que traslada narcóticos a El Salvador.
5.- Juicio contra tres por muerte de procuradora...Dos sujetos y una mujer enfrentarán debate por la muerte de Íngrid Gabriela Conedera Vargas, procuradora técnica de la Procuraduría General de la Nación, quien fue ultimada el 25 de julio, en la zona 5. 
6.- Matanza de nueve agentes en Salcajá...El presunto narcotraficante Eduardo Villatoro Cano, alias Guayo, y 15 supuestos miembros de su estructura, enfrentan proceso por la muerte de nueve policías asignados a la subestación de Salcajá, Quetzaltenango.
7.- Masacre en San José Nacahuil deja 11 muertos...Ocho supuestos miembros de la pandilla 18 son vinculados por el Ministerio Público con el ataque armado que el 7 de septiembre dejó 11 hombres muertos en San José Nacahuil, San Pedro Ayampuc.La investigación indica que el atentado se originó por una disputa relacionada con el tráfico de droga en el lugar. Los pandilleros vieron perjudicadas sus acciones ilícitas.
8.- Red es  señalada de despojo de 50 propiedades...Veinticinco supuestos miembros de la estructura los Topacio, señalada de despojo de bienes inmuebles, enfrentan proceso en el Juzgado Primero A de Mayor Riesgo.La Fiscalía cree que la organización participó en 50 estafas al Registro General de la Propiedad, donde cambió documentos de terrenos y viviendas. Al momento se han documentado 19 casos.
9.- Estructura vendió pasaportes...En el Juzgado Primero B de Mayor Riesgo se tramita un proceso en contra de siete personas, supuestas integrantes de una banda que vendía pasaportes falsificados.La investigación detalla que la banda llevaba diez años operando dentro de la Dirección General de Migración. Una colombiana que fue cliente de la estructura contó cómo compró el documento.
10.- Rigorrico es investigado por extorsiones...El Ministerio Público investiga a Rigoberto Morales Barrientos, alias Rigorrico, reo señalado de dirigir una red dedicada a cometer extorsiones desde la cárcel el Infiernito, Escuintla.El caso se tramita en el Juzgado Segundo de Primera Instancia Penal, a cargo del juez Carlos Aguilar. Las pesquisas indican que la red comenzó a operar en el 2005. Veintiuna personas afrontan proceso.
11.- Ligado a caso por  crimen contra abogada...Jairo Alfredo Hernández Reyes, de 25 años, alias el Caliente y/o el Frío, es señalado por el Ministerio Público como autor material de la muerte de la abogada Lea Marie de León Marroquín.El ataque fue perpetrado el 14 de febrero pasado, después de que la profesional salió de su oficina, en la Avenida de La Reforma, zona 9. La Fiscalía investiga 13 crímenes más relacionados con  el sindicado.
12.-  Organización robaba carros en Escuintla...Nueve supuestos integrantes de una banda dedicada a robar vehículos en Escuintla enfrentan un proceso penal que se tramita en la capital. La investigación indica que en diciembre del 2012 fue detectada la estructura, la cual se cree que robaba entre tres y cuatro automotores cada día.
13.- Se le acusa de  tener  relaciones con menores...El abogado César Barrientos Aguirre, hijo del magistrado César Barrientos Pellecer, enfrentará  juicio por presuntamente haber contratado servicios sexuales de menores de edad. La madre de una de las menores declaró en el proceso  que Barrientos Aguirre era cliente de una red dedicada a la trata de personas que opera en Mazatenango, Suchitepéquez. El caso sigue su curso.
I wrote about several arrests in high profile crimes in October. The progress also fits well with Greg's post this morning on Better But Still Terrible.Guatemalan authorities have done well to bring the murder rate down from 46 to 34/35 per 100,000. They have also done well to reduce impunity from 98 percent to approximately 70 percent. The poverty rate has decreased by about 20 percentage points over the last two years.

However even with these improvements, the political, economic, and security situation in Guatemala is still pretty terrible.

Sunday, 29 December 2013

Guatemalan deportees exceed 50,000 in 2013

Planes carrying 399 Guatemalans landed in Guatemala City on Friday bringing the total number deported this year from the United States to 50,233. That's a 25 percent increase over the 40,647 deported in 2012.

Another ~30,000 were returned to Guatemala via land presumably after having been picked up somewhere in Mexico. That's about 10,000 less than last year.

So really, there is no difference in the number of Guatemalans returned involuntarily in 2013 compared to 2012. On the face of it, it just looks like a greater number of Guatemalans were picked up at the US border, and within the US itself, while fewer were stopped in Mexico and returned to Guatemala via land.

Guatemalan authorities estimate that approximately 200,000 Guatemalans undertake the journey north each year (~550 per day) so there is another 120,000 unaccounted for. Some make it to the US, others settle in Mexico, and a third group returns voluntarily to Guatemala (perhaps they were robbed and ran out of money or decided the trek was not worth it).

The 1.5 million or so Guatemalans residing in the US will send over $5 billion in remittances back to their home country in 2013.

As of a week or so ago, the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency provided the following breakdown of deportees.
  1. Mexico - 241,493 (121 million)
  2. Guatemala - 47,769 (15.5 million)
  3. Honduras - 37,049 (8 million)
  4. El Salvador - 21,602 (6.2 million)
  5. Ecuador - 1,616 (15.5 million)
  6. Brazil - 1,500 (200 million)
  7. Colombia - 1,429 (48 million)
  8. Nicaragua - 1,383 (6 million)
Last year at this time I wrote that the US should extend Temporary Protected Status (TPS) to Guatemalans residing in the US. I'd say TPS is dead at this point.

Friday, 27 December 2013

Mass killing in Central America?

The National Civilian Police in Guatemala recorded 4,881 homicides between January and November 2013. Unfortunately, they have no motive for 2,390 killings (49%) so it makes it really difficult to empirically support many hypotheses regarding violent crime in the country. What I also don't trust in the data is that each killing only falls into a single category. For example, I'm not sure how authorities classified the nine police officers killed in Huehuetenango in June. They had to be placed in either the ignored or revenge category when they could also have fallen under confrontation with the PNC, narco-trafficking, and victims of robbery.

I was only thinking about this because of Jay Ulfelder's post on A Notable Year of the Wrong Kind in which Mexico is the only Latin American country that experienced "mass killing" in 2013. By mass killing, he means "any episode in which the deliberate actions of state agents or other organizations kill at least 1,000 noncombatant civilians from a discrete group." The organizations are probably cartels but I'm not sure if the responsibility is lumped together or broken down by different organizations. I'm also not sure who the discrete group in Mexico is other than civilians but I would probably say "migrants" making their way north to the United States.

Guatemala has suffered between 5,000 and 6,500 murders each year for the last few years, but we don't have exact numbers on who did the killings or who were the victims. Given what we read, one would suspect that gangs, organized crime, and drug traffickers have been responsible for well over 1,000 deaths each year but the PNC's incomplete statistics don't back that up.

El Salvador will "only" experience 2,500 or so murders this year. I suspect that the MS-13 and 18th Street gangs are responsible for at least 1,000 of those deaths but I can't be certain. Honduras will finish the year with over 7,000 murders and a rate over 80 once again but we can't be certain there because the government has stopped sharing homicide statistics. Venezuela will suffer approximately 25,000 murders and finish the year with a murder rate just below 80 per 100,000.

Anybody want to take a crack at which organization/group was responsible for killing over 1,000 members of a specific discrete group in the region in 2013?